by Steven Jonas, MD, MPH –
August 20, 2008
Is “The Surge Working?” Or is it not? Precisely
because that is the question that consumes the news media these days (or at
least it was, when this article was written at the end of July), proves that
indeed it is working, for Bush/McCain.
In December, 2000, Jim Baker, Republican Controller
Extraordinaire, lead the engineering of the prevention of any recounts in the
Florida “election” so that Bush could take over (not “win”) the Office of the
Presidency by the width of one vote on the Supreme Court. In December,
2006, Jim Baker, by now the leader of the
Thoroughly-Disillusioned-indeed-Disgusted-with-GWBush Sector of the Republican
Power Elite produced the final report of the bi-partisan, Congressionally
authorized, Iraq Study Group (the work of which had been underway for about a
year-and-a-half).
The timing of its publication had been conveniently arranged
so that the report would appear after the 2006 Congressional elections.
The Group was indeed bi-partisan. Interestingly enough, its unanimous
report was endorsed by, among others, its two most right-wing members: former
Sen. Alan Simpson of Wyoming, whose greatest claim to fame has been as the shepherd
of the early career of Dick Cheney, and former Attorney General Ed Meese,
easily the most partisan Attorney General this side of John Ashcroft and Al
Gonzalez.
The ISG
Report offered about 80 recommendations, intended to be implemented as
a group, all aimed at getting the US out of Iraq in the context of an overall
Middle East settlement involving, oh my gosh, such states as Syria and
Iran. The first Bush response was to run away from it as fast as his legs
could carry him. He asked no questions at the meeting at which it was
formally presented to him. However, he did immediately (that is, right
away, physically) go over to the Pentagon, where he asked a ton of questions
about how quickly what came to be called “The Surge” could be put
together. “The Surge” just happened to be a policy contrived to achieve a
set of goals exactly the opposite of what had been recommended by the Iraq
Study Group. The latter was intended to get the US out; the former was
intended to keep the US in, indefinitely if possible.
And, up to a point, that is precisely what is has
achieved. Most importantly for BushCheney, it has worked politically, at
least up to now. The stated aim of “The Surge” was to “reduce violence”
and “give Democracy a chance.” Based on what has and has not happened
during the time it has been in place, it has become obvious that the policy’s
real aim was to enhance the prospects for: Permanent War or at least Permanent
US Occupation of the country, the gaining of exclusive US oil company
contracts, the creation of permanent US bases if not permanent occupation, and
being able to use the whole issue of the Iraq occupation proactively against the
Democrats in the Congress and in the 2008 Presidential election, while engaging
in delay, delay, delay of any definitive moves towards settlement and US
withdrawal, as recommended by the ISG.
How many times were the Congress and the nation told to “wait
for General Petraeus to report?” Whereupon, at the appointed time, the
good General (and BushCheney finally found one they could trust to follow their
line without wavering in the direction of reality and truth-telling like all of
the cashiered flag-rank officers before him had done) would dutifully read from
the script that was likely dictated for him in Karl Rove’s office or its
equivalent in the White House.
And how, you might ask, precisely did it work to achieve
these ends? Well, let’s consider the ways. First, "The
Surge," going back to its initiation by Bush in January, 2007, worked in a
major way to reduce the appearance of "Iraq News" on television to a
minimum. There didn’t need to be any independent Network reporters in
Iraq to tell us what was really going on. Gen. Petraeus would
periodically report to the Congress, and through them, to us and that’s all we
would really need, wasn’t it? Those “reports” were, of course, stretched
out over time, and whenever anyone said “well, what’s happening now/” they were
told to wait for Gen. Petraeus. He would have the word for us, in May, in
September, in January, in what-have-you.
The conversion of streaming reporting on what was happening
on a day-to-day basis to episodic reporting, really repetition of the episodic
reports so kindly provided for us by the scripts the White House wrote for Gen.
Petraeus to read to us (ooops, I mean Gen. Petraeus’ own words, of course) has
also worked to achieve a major tamping down of political opposition to the War,
especially in the Congress. The Congress neatly and conveniently fell
into the “Petraeus/Surge” trap and meekly kept in “supporting the troops” with
all of that borrowed money. This was done variously to “give The Surge a
chance” and “because The Surge was working so far.”
Since there were/are no widely disseminated facts on what is
really happening in Iraq, the White House has been able to pretend that the
country is one almost totally at peace. Well, indeed it is, depending how one
defines “peace.” For example, there were 554 reported Iraqi war-deaths in
June of this year (Juan
Cole) Cole, a Middle East expert, estimates that that number is 10% of
the true figure. Public utilities function poorly; there are serious problems
with water supply and sanitary sewage disposal for many Iraqis. So
“peace” and its supposed dividend, a functioning society, are all in the eye of
the beholder.
Nevertheless, McCain and his shadow fact-checker, Joe
Lieberman, tell us that “The Surge is working” over and over again. Most
of the MSM, even such now-opponents of the War on Iraq as MSNBC’s Chris
Matthews and Joe Scarborough, take it as gospel, and repeat the gospel incessantly.
Obviously, since it has "worked" so well, it is the rationale for
staying in Iraq indefinitely. That the Government Accountability Office told us
recently virtually none of the political developments that were supposed to
have occurred in the past year and a half
actually did is just another of those inconvenient truths. And
so, BushMcCain were happily looking forward to "staying until victory has
been won," however the "V" word might be defined. Oh happy day.
There has surely been some reduction in violence in Iraq
(although there was an unfortunate uptick at the end of July). How much has
been due to the presence of about one-third more U.S. troops than previously
(with many fewer of them driving around in obsolete Hum-Vees exposing
themselves to roadside bombs) and how much due to "other factors" is
impossible to calculate. Other known factors include the massive ethnic
cleansing that has gone in Baghdad and other cities under the U.S. nose, and
the realization among some minority Sunnis that the solution for them lies
ultimately in a settlement with the Shiites, not the continuation of a civil
war they cannot possibly win.
Thus the unknowns include just how much Sunni-Shiite
negotiation is going on beneath the radar without the involvement of the U.S.
that was supposed to be part of "The Surge" (my guess is -- a lot;
see for example Robertson and Tavernese, “Sunni Political Bloc Ends Yearlong
Boycott and Rejoins Iraqi Government,” New York Times, July 20, 2008, a
development that, apparently, the US forces had nothing to do with creating)
and how much beneath-the-radar participation by the major regional Shiite power
(Iran) and Sunni powers (Saudi Arabia and Syria) there has been in such
negotiations. All three of these worthies would, for their own reasons, like to
get the U.S. out. Funnily enough, such negotiations were among the most
important recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. The only difference is, is
that if indeed they are going on, the U.S. is not party to them.
And so, The Surge is working brilliantly for McCain, at
least so far. Rather than have the political debate with Sen. Obama focus
on what US policy for the future should be, McCain is able to focus on whether
“The Surge” “worked” or not, and how wrong Sen. Obama was in not supporting it
originally. Not mentioned (by Obama neither, most unfortunately in my
view) is the fact that the alternative to The Surge was not doing nothing but
doing what the Iraq Study Group recommended: begin regional negotiations as
soon as possible to arrange for an overall Iraq and Regional settlement.
Also not mentioned (by Obama neither, most unfortunately in
my view) is the fact that in early 2005, at the height of the Iraq Civil War,
there actually more US troops in Iraq, 150,000, sent by Bush “in response to
increasing violence,” than there were at the height of The Surge (Scott
McClellan, What Happened, New York: Public Affairs, 2008, p. 249; BTW, I highly
recommend this book. What we need now is a Scott McClellan equivalent to
tell us “what really happened” leading up to 9/11.) So whatever is going
on in Iraq would not seem to have much relationship to the number of US troops
there. And following the recommendations of the ISG might have achieved a
better, even much better, result than what exists now. But these are just
historical details, so inconvenient for so many Republicans.
Of course there is the one little oddity that Bush's
hand-picked Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, has allowed that a U.S. withdrawal
as proposed by Sen. Obama would be just the ticket for Iraq, a move that an
overwhelming majority of Iraqis would support. (Yes, in the latter he was just
reflecting what poll after Iraqi poll has shown for the last 2-3 years or so.)
And Sen. Obama actually said what only the most fearless of Democratic
politicians have dared say up to now -- if "The Surge" has worked as
well as the Georgites claim it has, why that is just a wonderful reason for the
U.S. to begin withdrawing. So maybe, just maybe, Bush/McCain will be
subject to that old Chinese maxim, “Be careful what you wish for.” But
that remains to be seen, depending in major part at how smart the Obama
Campaign is in using the issue.
________
This column is based in part of “Dr. J.'s Commentary: The
Surge is Working -- for Bush and Cheney,” which appeared on BuzzFlash.com on
July 24, 2008. 