Letter from The U.K.

COPENHAGEN: FACING THE “NERO OPTION”

By Michael Faulkner – December 27, 2009

 As so often in critical times, the words and imagery of Shakespeare come to mind:

“We, at the height are ready to decline. There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat; and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

Brutus and his comrades, following the assassination of Caesar, lost their ventures to Mark Anthony.  Shakespeare never turned his attention to Nero and the burning of Rome in CE 64. Had he done so he would probably have corrected the apocryphal story of the emperor fiddling while the city burned, but he would certainly have exposed his ineffectual – fiddling -efforts to deal with the fire and his subsequent attempts to put the blame on others.

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the Copenhagen climate change summit, now drawing to a conclusion, has opted for the “Nero option”. Whatever deal comes out of the summit, at best it is likely to be one that will see temperatures rise by 3C throughout large areas of the south, particularly in Africa. This will be the consequence of limiting global CO2 emissions to reduce global temperature rises to 2C. According to a leaked UN document, even if this is achieved globally the outcome during this century will be disastrous, with increases in flooding and droughts. The more likely outcome of a 3C rise by mid-century will be catastrophic for Africa. Archbishop Tutu is reported as saying “We are facing impending disaster on a monstrous scale. A global goal of about 2C is to condemn Africa to incineration and no modern development.” Informed opinion is in no doubt about what is at stake. Matthew Stilwell, Managing Director of the Program on Governance and Sustainable Development, is Legal Counsel to the UN Environment Program (UNEP). He believes that at the Copenhagen summit the representatives of the rich western countries are really concerned to ensure that they retain their right, through carbon trading, to continue polluting the atmosphere at the expense of the poorer countries. Pressure has been brought to bear on developing countries to accept the 2C increase in return for a mere $10bn to deal with all climate related issues for the next three years. The world carbon market is worth $1.2 trillion a year. President Obama, who will arrive in Copenhagen at the end of the week, will be anxious to sign off a deal – any deal that can be presented as a success. But even the 2C global goal may be too much for the US Senate. Those small island states who are certain to be swallowed up by the oceans are trying to cap rises at 1.5C. “They have to understand” insist The Guardian editorial writers, “that 2C is the best they will get.” But, according to Naomi Klein, writing in The Nation, it would be better to have no deal at all than one that spells catastrophe. “It would”, she writes, “be a political disaster for some heads of state- but it could be one last chance to avert the real disaster for everyone else.” Stilwell agrees. “I’d rather wait six months or a year and get it right because the science is growing, the political will is growing, the understanding of civil society and affected communities is growing, and they’ll be ready to hold their leaders to account to the right kind of deal.”

To anyone capable of serious thought the issue is clear. The future of the planet is at stake. Stilwell is right when he says that the political will is growing. But there are very powerful forces engaged in a deliberate campaign to prevent effective action on climate change. Before considering them it is worth examining some of the other factors contributing to widespread ignorance, apathy, skepticism and denial.

The situation is different from that posed by the threat of nuclear war. During the Cold War years everyone was aware that a thermo-nuclear war was possible even though most people were able to put the prospect out of their minds for most of the time. The Cuban missile crisis of 1962 brought the fearful prospect to the forefront for a few days. For most of the time there was a rational belief that the balance of terror (Mutually Assured Destruction – MAD) would prevent a nuclear war. Actually the possibility of a nuclear conflict (India/Pakistan) or a nuclear accident, is greater now than it was during the Cold War, but the fear of nuclear war has receded.

Despite mounting evidence of man-made, potentially catastrophic climate change there is a stubborn reluctance to take the prospect seriously. At a personal, subjective level, most people are resistant to accepting that in order to tackle the problem very real changes will have to be made in the way we conduct our lives and the way society is organized in the western world. Acquisitive, consumerist society generates a mentality of restless possessive individualism that can never be satisfied. Obsession with ephemera, the novelty of change for its own sake, the ubiquity of obsolescence and waste – all are integral features of our societies, so that it is almost impossible to imagine that another, better world is possible. Those in denial about the reality of climate change and its catastrophic consequences do not want their illusions to be disturbed. If they are old and without family they may comfort themselves with the selfish thought that they won’t be here to see it. Many people are not prepared to abandon their gas-guzzling cars or cut down on air travel. Younger people may resist confronting the reality for themselves or their children by simply hoping it won’t happen. Then there are various brands of religious fundamentalists who believe that whatever happens is the will of God and that as He has willed it we have to accept it as an expression of His love – or His disappointment with His creation.

The organized and well-funded “climate change skeptics” are more insidious. They have a vested interest in either denying that climate change and global warming is occurring at all, or that, if it is, it has nothing to do with human activity. The handful of scientists who fall into this category, often funded by the corporations whose interests they serve, try to convince us that “scientists are divided” and that “the jury is still out” on the issue. These people are behind the illegal hacking of the University of East Anglia emails and the attempt to twist the evidence to suggest that there was a conspiracy to suppress “the truth” as they see it. Amongst the deniers are various conspiracy theorists who claim that the proponents of man-made climate change are communists bent upon destroying the western world. Such people are very much in evidence in the United States, but they also exist in Britain. In fact one of them is representing the European Parliament in Copenhagen. This is what he believes: “The anti-western intellectual cranks of the left suffered a collective breakdown when communism collapsed. Climate change is their new theology…used to impose an anti-human utopia as deadly as anything conceived by Stalin or Mao.” He is Nick Griffin, recently elected in Britain as a Euro MP. He is a Hitler-admirer and Holocaust denier, leader of the fascist British National Party.

Until recently the left in Britain – that is, those many small organizations and active trade unionists to the left of the Labor Party – also appeared reluctant to face up to the implications of climate change. This is now changing. It cannot be emphasized too strongly that no political issue is more important than this. It is no longer possible to claim to be working for a better world, for a fundamental change in the socio-economic basis of society and an end to the gross inequalities, exploitation and injustices that free-market capitalism has inflicted on the world, unless we confront the reality of global warming. Too often people on the left seemed to be stuck in the style and mode of thought of the past. The challenges of the present, made shockingly real by the crisis of finance capitalism, demand new forms of organization, new ways of mobilizing mass support for a radical challenge to the whole social system. Everything that was best about the old left needs to be carried forward into a new movement. It is still not possible to see exactly what form such a movement will take, but the widespread and growing popular anger that has arisen since the financial crisis broke two years ago cannot be allowed to dissipate. New popular movements have arisen in Latin America and they have many lessons to teach us in Europe. Mass-based popular democratic movements can and must challenge the international corporations that are responsible for the despoliation of the planet. The Nero option, sitting back and watching the planet burn, is the sure road to catastrophe. To this radical challenge aimed at taking power from the vested interests that hold the world in thrall, there is no alternative.  

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