By Conn Hallinan – June 26, 2011
The assassination of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden did
more than knock off America’s Public Enemy Number One, it formalized a new kind
of warfare, where sovereignty is irrelevant, armies tangential, and decisions
are secret. It is, in the words of
counterinsurgency expert John Nagl, “an astounding change in the nature of
warfare.”
It is also one that requires a vast intelligence apparatus,
one that now constitute almost a fourth arm of government that most Americans
are almost completely unaware of. Yet, according to the Washington
Post, this empire includes some 1, 271 government agencies and 1,931
private companies in more than 10, 000 locations across the country, with a
budget last year of at least $80.1 billion.
“At the heart of this new warfare,” notes the Financial Times,” is high-tech
cooperation between intelligence agencies and the military” that blurs the
traditional borders between civilians and the armed forces. And it fits with the U.S.’s penchant
for waging war with robots and covert Special Forces.
But, by definition, the secrecy at the core of the “new
warfare” removes decisions about war and peace from the public realm and
relegates them to secure rooms in the White House or clandestine bases in the
Hindu Kush. When the Blackhawk helicopters slipped through Pakistani airspace,
they did more than execute one of America’s greatest bugbears, they essentially
said another country’s sovereignty was no longer relevant and consigned
Congress to the role of spectator.
Over the past several decades U.S. military theorists have
clashed over how to use the armed forces, though it is a debate that gets
distorted by the requirements of industry: the U.S, does not really need 11
immense Nimitz class aircraft carriers, but the Newport News Shipbuilding
Company—and the aerospace giants that fill the flattops with fighter
bombers—do.
The arguments have revolved around three different
approaches, the Powell Doctrine, the Rumsfeld Doctrine, and the Petraeus
Doctrine.
The Powell Doctrine is essentially conventional warfare
a-la-World War II: massive firepower, lots of soldiers, clear goals. This was
the formula for the first Gulf War, which, after a month of bombing, lasted
only four days. But it is a very expensive way to wage war.
The Rumsfeld Doctrine merged high tech firepower and Special
Forces with a minimal use of Army and Marine units. It also relies on private
contractors to do much of what was formerly done by the military. The doctrine
routed the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001 and quickly knocked out the Iraqi
Army in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Once the shock and awe wore off, however,
the Doctrine’s weaknesses became obvious. It simply didn’t have the manpower to
hold the ground against a guerilla insurgency. The 2007 “surge” of troops in
Iraq, like last year’s surge in Afghanistan, was an admission that the doctrine
was fundamentally flawed if the locals decided to keep fighting.
The Petraeus Doctrine is old wine in a new bottle:
counterinsurgency. In theory, it is boots on the ground to win hearts and
minds. It draws heavily on intelligence—what Gen. David Petraeus calls
“bandwidth”—to isolate and eliminate any insurgents—and attempts to
establish trust with the locals. It is cheaper than the Powell and Rumsfeld
doctrines, but it also almost never works. Eventually the locals get tried of being occupied, and then
counterinsurgency turns nasty. Building schools and digging wells give way to
night raids and targeted assassinations that alienate the local population.
According to U.S. intelligence, the current counterinsurgency program in
Afghanistan is failing.
So, what is this “astounding change” that Nagl speaks of? If
you want to put a name to it, “counter-terrorism” is probably the most
descriptive, although with a new twist. Like counterinsurgency, counter-terrorism has been around a long time.
The Phoenix Program that killed some 40,000 South Vietnamese was a variety of
the doctrine. Phoenix, too, paid no attention to sovereignty. During the
Vietnam War, Long Range Reconnaissance Patrols secretly went into Cambodia and
Laos.
In recent years, the U.S. clandestinely sent Special Forces
into Syria and Pakistan in a sort of shadow war against “insurgents.” A number
of other countries have done the same.
But the Obama administration openly admits to sending a
Special Forces Seal team into Pakistan to assassinate bin Laden, and it was
prepared to fight Pakistan’s armed forces if they tried to intervene. And when
Pakistan asked the U.S. to curb its use of armed drones in Pakistani airspace,
the Central Intelligence Agency said it would do nothing of the kind.
It is as if counter-terrorism reconfigured that classic line
from the movie “Treasure of the Sierra Madre”: “We don’t need no stinkin’
badges, we got drones and Seals.”
The principle behind counter-terrorism is eliminating people
you don’t like. There is no patina of “hearts and minds,” and the new strategy
makes no effort to practice the subterfuge of “plausible deniability” that has
deflected the ire of target countries in the past.
While clandestine warfare is not new, the boldness of the
bin Laden hit is. Certainly the people who planned the attack wanted to make a
statement: we can get you anywhere you are, and impediments like international
law, the Geneva Conventions and the United Nations Charter be damned.
“Targeted
assassinations violate well-established principles of international law,” says
law professor Marjorie Cohn. “Extrajudicial executions are unlawful, even in
armed conflict.”
From the U.S.’s point of view, the doctrine has a number of
advantages. It is cheaper, and its expenses are generally hidden away in a
labyrinth of bureaucracy. For instance, the $80.1 billion figure is only an
estimate and does not include the cost of the CIA’s drone war in Pakistan, or
Homeland Security.
Recent moves by the White House suggest the administration
is putting this new strategy in place. “Petraeus’s appointment to head the CIA
is an important indication that the U.S. wants to fuse intelligence and
military operations,” a “senior figure” at the British Defense Ministry told
the Financial Times.
In the past the division between military and civilian
intelligence agencies allowed for a range of opinions. While the U.S. military
continues to put a rosy spin on the Afghan War, civilian intelligence agencies
have been much more somber about the success of the current surge. That
division is likely to vanish under the new regime, where intelligence becomes
less about analysis and more about targeting.
The new warfare opens up a Pandora’s box, the implications
of which are only beginning to be considered. What would be the reaction if
Cuban armed forces had landed in Florida and assassinated Luis Posada and
Orlando Bosch, two anti-Castro militants who were credibly charged with setting
bombs in Havana and downing a Cuban airliner? Washington would treat it as an
act of war. The problem with a foreign policy based on claw and fang is that,
if one country claims the right to act independently of international law and
the UN Charter, all countries can so claim.
In the end, however, the biggest victims for this “new”
warfare will probably be the American people. Once an enormous intelligence
bureaucracy is created—there are some 854,000 people with top-secrecy
security clearance—it will be damned hard to dismantle it. And, since the
very nature of the endeavor removes it from public oversight, it is a formula
for a massive and uncontrolled expansion of the national security state.
Conn Hallinan can be read at Dispatchedfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com